MSM reports daily on approximately 1,500 polls of elections for president, senator, governor and the U.S. House. The 538 website evaluates polling based on the historical track record and methodological transparency of each. The “newspaper of record,” the New York Times reports on its own NYT-Sienna poll, as if it is more newsworthy than the issues, conduct and demeanor of the candidates.
According to Pew and a Vanderbilt University study, 2020 polls were the most inaccurate in a generation. A task force found that polling during the two weeks before the election overstated support for Biden by 3.9 percentage points, which was the largest polling error since 1980 when support for Jimmy Carter was overestimated by 6 percentage points.
Allan Lichtman, American University, has correctly predicted the winner of each presidential race since Ronald Reagan’s reelection victory in 1984 using his “13 keys” system. (It’s worth mentioning that in 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Although Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount for Florida’s electoral votes. Lichtman stands by validity of his prediction. So do I.)
Invariably, Trump, a Wharton graduate who studied probability and statistics and was in the gambling business, depicts himself ahead “bigly.”
During his career as a “businessman” Trump passed himself off as a “winner.” He associated with gamblers and casino owners, and eventually established Trump Entertainment Resorts in 1995. Casinos operate on a “house edge,” the average gross profit that the casino expects to make from each game. The longer gamblers play, the greater the odds are that the result will lose money. The house edge varies significantly among the different casino games, with blackjack the lowest and keno the highest.
Trump bought along the Atlantic City boardwalk in the early 1980s and got a casino license from the New Jersey Casino Control Commission (CCC) in 1982. He had planned to build his own casino on the boardwalk, but was stalled on the project when Mike Rose, then CEO of Holiday Inn and Harrah's approached him to manage construction of a Holiday Inn Casino-Hotel. It opened in May 1984 and two years later Trump bought out Holiday Inn's shares in the property and renamed it the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino.
In 1985, Trump purchased the nearly-complete Atlantic City Hilton hotel and casino property at the Atlantic marina from Hilton Hotels for $325 million. The hotel chain sold the property after its application for a gaming license was turned down by the CCC.] Trump originally opened the property as Trump's Castle Hotel Casino, and later renamed it the Trump Marina.
In 1988, Trump purchased the unfinished Taj Mahal property from Resorts International for $230 million after negotiations with Merv Griffin in which the two men divided the assets of the failing company. The casino, at the time the largest in Atlantic City, would eventually cost almost $1 billion by the time it opened in 1990. Trump completed the project using junk bonds, a decision that hurt the company afterward as the gaming industry struggled in a recession and interest rates became unmanageable. See Wikipedia.
Trump gambling properties were poorly leveraged. In addition, legal compliance was always an issue. Trump Taj Mahal casino broke anti-money laundering rules 106 times in its first year and a half of operation in the early 1990s, according to the IRS in a 1998 settlement agreement.
Trump Entertainment Resorts and its predecessors filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection four times, in 1991, following construction of the $1-billion Trump Taj Mahal, and in 2004, 2009 and 2014. After the 2004 bankruptcy, Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts changed its name to Trump Entertainment Resorts (TER), and Trump ceased to play an active role in the company.
According to the Guardian, by the time it finally closed its doors in 2014, Trump Plaza was the worst-performing casino in Atlantic City, taking in as much money from gamblers in eight and a half months as the Borgata casino did every two weeks.
Other casino owners support Trump. For example, according to many sources, Miriam Adelson, the majority owner of the Las Vegas Sands Corporation, is expected to spend a chunk of her roughly $32 billion fortune to help elect the man who bankrupted the Trump Taj Mahal. Steve Wynn, a billionaire former casino operator whose alleged attempts to lobby Trump on behalf of the Chinese government elicited the response “We just won Nevada,” when Trump got his donor pledge, according to Huffpost. A search of his donors includes many other casino owners and gamblers.
Casino ownership should be as close to a “sure thing” as any investment.
Historically, betting odds have been accurate, but in 2016 HRC win the vote and lost in the electoral college. The website Real Clear Odds, lists the betting odds. As of August 15, Harris holds an 8 percentage lead on average.
To a reasonable degree of probability, based on the 2020 and 2022 results, the polls are probably invalid. The betting odds are probably more accurate than the polls, but the electoral college issue remains. Lichtman hasn’t decided but I think other factors - like whether a candidate has been convicted of a felony. In his podcast the other day, he discussed the Ukrainian incursion into Russia, "one of the most brilliant maneuvers in modern military history," and said that this could turn the "foreign/military success key" in Harris's favor.
I support Harris. I contribute. But I don’t bet. If I knew whether Trump has bet “side money” on himself, and whether the casino owners and gamblers have affected the Las Vegas odds, maybe I’d wager. The smart money is on Lichtman.
Daniel, banks wrote off $500 million in Trump debt on casinos. That was income to Trump. He paid no taxes on that by pushing off worthless paper to those banks. He owes the taxpayer $200 million for that if you ask me.
Trump is not the smartest candidate we have ever had, but he always had an instinct to know what was trending and which way the wind is blowing. He is very aware that he is losing and it frightens him. Trump's lies are driven by his deep insecurities. He knows he is a phony and he has lived with that his whole life. He has spent billions and hired lawyers to hide the truth. Now, when his faults are being displayed on the big screen, he finds that he has lost energy, the mind, and the cleverness he had ten years ago. He knows that he is now the Biden in this race. He is toast. He is bringing back all of his cheaters and criminals to see if they can save him. Harris is an experienced prosecutor. She knows their type.