Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller looks at betting markets and draws his trends and predictions from them. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”
As we say here in Baghdad By the Sea -- Ojala que si. -- God wills it.
Like Miller, I track the bookies. As of today, the Real Clear RCP Average is Harris .52.3 vs Trump 46.3.
My experience with bookies, however is the smartest money comes in when the horses are at the post, just before the starting gun, the gamblers' money comes in, changing the odds.
None of the pollsters or gamblers, including Miller, have a handle on registrations, especially in the swing states. According to Pew Research Center, many of the more prominent polling organizations that use probability sampling have shifted from conducting polls primarily by telephone to using online methods, or some combination of online, mail and telephone. The result is that polling methodologies are far more diverse now than in the past. But after a cursory search, I can't tell which if any, have factored the effect of new registrations.
I've asked several commenters to cross examine pollsters on this issue, but so far....crickets. I assume that the trend favors Harris/Walz. In Baghdad By the Sea, I know that the trend does because voter registration is a public matter and on request the numbers are provided. In data, the DNC uses a system called VAT, which can provide a list of new registered voters.
The Voter Analysis Tool (VAT) is an online resource that offers data re changes in voter registration, moves and more, offers email delivery of lists to volunteers, has colorful graphic voter registration and VBM progress charts, and generates slate cards for texting or emailing.
The theory behind FT 6 is to contact some of the 60% of unregistered voters have never been asked to register. To win in 2024, FT 6 has reached out to millions of unregistered likely Democrats using a one-of-a-kind database and every outreach method possible (email, text, postcard, phone, targeted ad, and in-person too), in key swing states and districts where new Democrats will make the most impact. According to FT 6 analysis, 3 million new Democrats in swing states can ensure the election. So far, more than 12 million texts have been sent.
Several other organizations are doing the same, using different databases.
I also think that other issues are not included in the data. E.G. in 2020 Trump supporters included many groups that are flipping. IMHO there is no way to quantify that effect. Most of them have flipped because of the democracy/Jan 6 issue, or because they thing Trump has degenerated and is unfit to be president. I have read many of the polling questionnaires. Virtually none address Jan 6.
The most successful prognosticator has been Allen Lichtman, who picks Harris.
We have to "pour it on." Still time to expand our base.
Daniel, Just so you know that you are not alone: Several months ago, you wrote about being blocked on Face Book. That has now happened to me. Unlike you, I only have a handful of followers. I was blocked by Advanced Protection. I followed their directions but couldn't get their last direction about two party authentications to work plus one of their recommendations wanted money. So. No more FB for me.
Daniel, your analyses are invaluable and so detailed. Thank you. May Professor Miller be right. It's encouraging that his work predicts victories in the swing states. We've known for weeks and from analogies to 2020 that VP Harris is very likely to win the popular vote. It's the Electoral College that is always the worry. The gambling odds of course take the EC into account, I understand: they are tracking who wins. Please know that your work and writing matter to a lot of people out here on the landscape trying to help.
I still believe Florida can swing and Scott Dworkin posted on that today. I saw little movement in July’s Florida registrations. Disappointing. I expect we won’t see movement until October numbers are posted. I see the GOP disintegrating.
There is a lot of good work being done to get latent Dems to wake up, get registered and vote. It's not just Taylor Swift making it happen. The polls are useless. One NYT poll had Harris leading in PA but tied nationally. Possible, but very doubtful. I think some places begin voting this week. Trump is doubling down on divisiveness and hate. Now he has Robinson who does a better job of that. Good luck America.
There’s plenty of time to add voters who are still on the fence or are having second thoughts about voting for a couple of weird misfits! The made up story about Haitian immigrants eating dogs and cats proves that the Republican nominee for president and vice president are racists and anyone who still supports them are as well.
Ohio has an ethnic intimidation law: Section 2927.12 (A) No person shall violate section 2903.21, 2903.22, 2909.06, or 2909.07, or division (A)(3), (4), or (5) of section 2917.21 of the Revised Code by reason of the race, color, religion, or national origin of another person or group of persons.
(B) Whoever violates this section is guilty of ethnic intimidation. Ethnic intimidation is an offense of the next higher degree than the offense the commission of which is a necessary element of ethnic intimidation.
If Ohio officials fail to enforce it, it's possible that federal law could kick in.
The Republican governor and mayor should threaten Trump and Vance. If they don't, they could be the subject of a mandamus action.
Meanwhile, more than 500,000 Haitians in Florida are eligible to vote. can flip the state.
Daniel, Just so you know that you are not alone: Several months ago, you wrote about being blocked on Face Book. That has now happened to me. Unlike you, I only have a handful of followers. I was blocked by Advanced Protection. I followed their directions but couldn't get their last direction about two party authentications to work plus one of their recommendations wanted money. So. No more FB for me.
Whatever I have must be contagious.
You have Trump Derangement Syndrome. And you are only contagious to the elderly and the very stupid.
I was threatened on FB but still on. Twitter deleted me.
Thank you for thoroughly sharing voter, poll data with us here!
I appreciate being able to read facts as opposed to msm volatile propaganda and YT alarmist clickbait.
I had an informative article to read rather than entering another circle of nonstop frustration with a void in the center🤗
Daniel, your analyses are invaluable and so detailed. Thank you. May Professor Miller be right. It's encouraging that his work predicts victories in the swing states. We've known for weeks and from analogies to 2020 that VP Harris is very likely to win the popular vote. It's the Electoral College that is always the worry. The gambling odds of course take the EC into account, I understand: they are tracking who wins. Please know that your work and writing matter to a lot of people out here on the landscape trying to help.
I still believe Florida can swing and Scott Dworkin posted on that today. I saw little movement in July’s Florida registrations. Disappointing. I expect we won’t see movement until October numbers are posted. I see the GOP disintegrating.
Those were pre debate numbers. Anecdotally should be a deluge. Besides FT 6, Movement Labs sent hundreds of thousands of texts this week.
Lets hope you're correct, Daniel
He’s wrong. I’m so glad Trump won so I can relish your sorrow
There is a lot of good work being done to get latent Dems to wake up, get registered and vote. It's not just Taylor Swift making it happen. The polls are useless. One NYT poll had Harris leading in PA but tied nationally. Possible, but very doubtful. I think some places begin voting this week. Trump is doubling down on divisiveness and hate. Now he has Robinson who does a better job of that. Good luck America.
There’s plenty of time to add voters who are still on the fence or are having second thoughts about voting for a couple of weird misfits! The made up story about Haitian immigrants eating dogs and cats proves that the Republican nominee for president and vice president are racists and anyone who still supports them are as well.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Daniel, how are you doing? John T. Cullen
What happened? “According to FT 6 analysis, 3 million new Democrats in swing states can ensure the election.”
We need a recount!
I’m horrified by the incendiary rhetoric targeting Haitians especially in Springfield, Any thoughts on how we can support Springfield, OH?
Ohio has an ethnic intimidation law: Section 2927.12 (A) No person shall violate section 2903.21, 2903.22, 2909.06, or 2909.07, or division (A)(3), (4), or (5) of section 2917.21 of the Revised Code by reason of the race, color, religion, or national origin of another person or group of persons.
(B) Whoever violates this section is guilty of ethnic intimidation. Ethnic intimidation is an offense of the next higher degree than the offense the commission of which is a necessary element of ethnic intimidation.
If Ohio officials fail to enforce it, it's possible that federal law could kick in.
The Republican governor and mayor should threaten Trump and Vance. If they don't, they could be the subject of a mandamus action.
Meanwhile, more than 500,000 Haitians in Florida are eligible to vote. can flip the state.